Until 6G arrives, RAN Revenue is Expected to Decrease

In the future years, investments in 5G Radio Access Networks (RAN) are anticipated to decline, but they are anticipated to rise once 6G technology is introduced, according to a recent analysis by Mobile Experts. The findings of a report by Dell’Oro Group, which suggested that the RAN market is transitioning from a phase of rapid expansion to slower growth, are consistent with this pattern.

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According to Mobile Experts, Ericsson is presently in the lead in the vendor area, followed by Nokia, which outperformed Huawei by a wide margin. Mobile Experts’ latest projection shows a fascinating trend: China and the rest of the world have become distinct marketplaces. According to the analysis, Chinese operators will work to reach their government’s 5G development targets over the next two years, while US and other countries’ 5G spending will fall.

Joe Madden, Mobile Experts’ lead analyst, said this trend was seen in 2000, 2008, and 2016. As each “G” turns into a cash cow, base station pricing and volume drop significantly in the second half. Yet, intriguing advancements like software and private 5G counterbalance the market decline.

When generating its estimates, Mobile Experts takes a number of different elements into consideration; nevertheless, despite the fact that all of the major US carriers have altered their capital expenditures (capex), the experts believe that this is not a valid indicator for the RAN market. Global operators typically only release their capex projections at a high level, and these estimates typically include both landline and wireless business regions under a single estimate. According to Mobile Experts, the lines between wireline and wireless are often difficult to distinguish because fiber is used in both of these areas. Also, each organization has a unique method of accounting for mobile capital expenditures and capital expenditures related to RAN.

Furthermore, depreciation and the accounting for network vendor financing can bias the results. As a result, Mobile Experts does not rely only on capital expenditure estimates, but rather uses them to double-check network capacity modeling and product-level forecasts. According to the company, its capex view is one of many sources of information in its model.

To construct their estimates, Mobile Experts instead collects data from several component providers. They utilize this data to calculate the number of radios sent each quarter, using reference points like power amplifiers, crystal oscillators, filters, and other components. The fact that different countries employ different frequency bands is advantageous since it allows them to trace shipments of frequency-sensitive components and differentiate between China and other countries.


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